OK so DEC 1-8 Cold... DEC 9-15 Mild --What about DEC 15-30?

The weak area of Low pressure which is developing on the coast of SC / NC is going to develop into a significant Low but well out to see it... which means all that speculation and hype regarding this potential system is going to be unfulfilled. As I mentioned last Friday I was not impressed by this system for number different reasons but the primary ones were that the Upper air patterns over eastern Canada and Greenland are simply not conducive in any way shape or form for the system to develop close enough to the coast so that the precipitation shield to reach the metropolitan areas of the Northeast. Moreover we also have a problem with the Low-level temperatures being simply too warm even if the precipitation were to reach the coast.

As the number of weenies continue to multiply like dust or fungus so will the hype ... which will continue to grow at an exponential rate IF any serious event threatens the Northehast CONUS this winter.

My suspicions and skepticism regarding those few Friday runs of the NAM/ WRF that show the system developing closer to the coast have turned out to be correct. To be sure they were a couple of runs which were trying to show some consistency on Friday so yes I was a little concerned Friday afternoon /evening. But once again the tried-and-true rules have turned out to be correct... that for any sort of significant winter weather threat on the East Coast certain features havr to be in place at 850 500 and 200 MB. And none of these features were place with this system as it approaches the coast. In addition... last Thursday and Friday some these models are showing the actual shortwave developing a negative tilt this evening as it neared the coast but now even that's gone.

There is going to be one more large cold HIGH which comes down Wednesday from Central Canada and reinforces the current Cold air mass. .. if anything for East Coast this one is going to be a more impressive and deeper with the cold because this time around before the front passes... temperatures in the eastern third of the CONUS are not going to be in the 60s and 70s.
By December 8 -- 9 the +PNA pattern ( ridge on west coast of North America trough in the East) begins to break down as several systems from the eastern Pacific slam into the Ridge and rip it apart. There is little doubt that the second week of the December -- say from DEC 9-15 is going to feature milder than normal temperatures across much of the CONUS. The question is how mild? Certainly I see nothing to indicate temperatures as warm as what we saw in November (relative to normal) or the record warm temperatures we saw in January of 2006.

I see the pattern that features a mild Pacific flow but also no strong southeast Ridges. Indeed a pattern last January featured a strong Ridge centered over the Plains states and into the Mississippi valley ... this time around we are seeing according to some of the ensembles several strong systems coming in from the Pacific and re-developing over the Plains and/or Midwest as significant Low pressure areas. To be sure this is not a cold pattern any way shape or form of but the other hand.... with number of systems moving into the Plains and Midwest itsy does not look like the near record warmth we saw in November 2006 and / or January 2006. For the East coast it is Mild pattern and the Midwest wet and mild.

The real issue is going to be what happens after December 15. Do we moved back to another cold pattern or does the mild pattern set up all the way to Christmas / New Years? And this an important question especially IF you are trading this ENERGY wise.

This is the LAST run of the 1 month CAS or soil moisture model... run DEC 2 for the MONTH of DEC 2006. Since eaely NOV ( this climate model is rin once every 2 days !!!) this model for DEC 2006 has showed a clear trend for colder than Normal temps East of the Mississippi river.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/cas_pt_mon.lead1.gif

Underlying all of this is the complicating psychological factor of this last 2 seasonal CONSENSUS forecasts . It is vital to keep in mind that the seasonal forecast for Hurricane season of 2006 from the consensus point a view sucked as was the Winter forecast in the consensus point a 2005-06. Thus if any portion of the forecast for a mild winter of 2006-07 gets into the "trouble" this could cause a very strong and quick reaction within the energy markets.

If you're going with the consensus and you think Winter2006-07 is a going to be a Mild one obviously what you want is see is NOT a repeat of the first week of the December.... and thus a mild interval from say DEC 9-10 to DEC 27 or so would be great.

If on the other hand you are going against the consensus because that's where the money can be made this year.... since everyone and their Mom believes is going to be a mild winter for most of the US... even a seasonally cold period of DEC 15-30 would have a big impact. This would mean that the month of DEC 2006 featured one week of above normal temperatures (DEC 9-16) versus 3 weeks of seasonal cold.

And IF (this is a BIG IF) the second half the December were to turn even seasonally cold this would be a major defeat for those gambling on a MILD winter and could prove to be very unsettling. It would spark fears that the Consensus Forecast for yet another season could be deep deep trouble.