ANOTHER noreaster!!! what does it Mean ??? .

gobble fooking Gooble ya sick twisted freaks....

I have gotten some emails and coments about how often this Blog with be updated... Good question..once I get settled in to the new place and shift over to my early hours-- where I am up at 530 or 6am I hope to have this Blog updated every days... sometimes Twice a day if the 12z stuff is worthy. In that instance I will do so AFTER the 12z GFS CMC UKMET and Euro have all come out.

Also I will have to figure out what to do with the Modeltracker page as well now that I am running this blog.

The next thing I want to talk about is this perception I see from a lot of undergrad and it exists even in some professional meteorologists that when they issue a forecast .... be it short range... medium-range or long-range or seasonal forecast... that is wrong or somehow the demeaning to change the forecast. OK lets get right ot it... That mindest is crap and if that is your perception as a meteorologist you going to fail in the PRIVATE sector. With that sort attitude / mentality you will probably in the National Weather Service... possibly as a large fat overweight govt employee with your arms sticking out of the sides at a 45° angle still working the Midnight shift at the age of 55 ...when one day your wife tells you she cant take it anymore and is leaving you for the entire Washington Redskins football team and you end up getting a heart attack!!!!

Forecasting is about getting a forecast RIGHT --- it is not about your ego. If you make the forecast and you can see itis busting change the damn thing!!! This is the way it is ( and has to be ) in the private sector and quite frankly it's this attitude that some undergrads and other professional meteorologists (even in the TV business) which cause a lot of tension between meteorologists who deal with the energy and agricultural markets and those who have this weird perception or mindset. I have demonstrated many times on my web site (and other locations) that when I think MY forecast that I originally issued is wrong... I change it. It's a tricky thing to be sure because you don't like change it too early but when it becomes obvious the fastball is about to smack in you face please get bail out... Thank you... this has been a public service annoucment from DT ( aka the Master of Disaster the Commander of Choas ...the Virginia Vigilannte)


I presume by now you have heard or read about the snow which was reported in portions of Georgia & SC yesterday and I have heard but not yet confirmed that there was the snow reported near the GA FL state line. Yesterday afternoon around 3-4 PM hear in the Richmond metro area I personally saw rain mixed with snow which was a pleasant surprise and the temperature was 41 or 42°.

I have emphasized this point several times at some of other forums where I occassionally make weather comments but I have to emphasize it one more time. This is the sixth significant and fourth major coastal LOW we have seen on the East Coast since October 1. Seasonal patterns matter. A lot... sometme the entire seasonal forecasts can be easily detected and picked up on very early and good forecasters can see it. We may be seeing this sort of thing unfold right in front of us. What's amazing about this stormy pattern for the East Coast.... is that we have had these coastal storms when the pattern has been cold in October and mild November. The point is it does NOT make a difference -- you fart too loud in this cold season you are going to get a big storm on East Coast. In case you did not know for central VA Autumn 2006 is now the Wettest Autumn ever and that is exceeding the 1999 season we had Floyd.... and I suspect that when I browse the data I will find similar sorts of records or near record set in many locations across Virginia and North Carolina and probably Maryland as well.

I suppose it's possible the seasonal pattern may break down as soon as we move into winter... I know when I was in undergrad and I was looking at the trend in the autumn of 1987 and looking forward to the Winter 87 --88 we had a lot of Noreasters in October and early November on the East Coast but when the Winter hit pattern collapsed. But I don't think that will happened as we now into late November.

Of course that being said there's no guarantee that we willl see snow as opposed to rain especially IF the pattern stays mild. Of course based on my WINTER forecast that is NOT going to happen but it's a forecast ... I mean just because I issued that seasonal forecast does NOT mean it is going to be correct.

This morning I have a lot of winds here in eastern Virginia up to 50 miles an hour .... and if you get the chance you may wish to take a look at the radar from last night...
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/latest.gif

also here is the latest surface map this morning.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/SFC_NORTHEAST.gif

Again I wanna make a point that I made several days ago when everybody else was talking about how warm it's going to get into the Northeast .... that this coastal storm and its North winds would keep temperatures colder than what the pattern would otherwise suggest in the upper atmosphere. To be sure once this Noreaster is gone the warmth over the Plains / Mdiwest will surge eastward ... but it is delayed because of this coastal Low --- of that there is no doubt about it .

Taking look at the some of the DEC early forecasts there is quite a bit of dispute as to how December is going to appear. The NOV 1986 temps over the CONUS is almots an identical match to what we have seen here in NOV 2006...as the forecasters at EarthSat pointed out yesterday. I know there are some forecasts which call for armer than normal DEC but I don't agree. For those if you wish to consider such things here is a link to the latest December forecast from the CAS model...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/cas_pt_mon.lead1.gif

and as you can see for next month it has a decent cold east of the Mississippi River. I mention this because last year we had a cold November and December and the CAS model from five months out consistently forecasted significant cold temperatures in December over the eastern third of the US.

Taking look the medium-range model the operational 0Z GFS at day 9 and 10 show this massive trough over the eastern third of the CONUS whoile would seem over done. But keep in mind we might be in phase 4 MJO by then shwich does suport a stroing brief amplification over the Eastern US. As a general rule when the 6z GFS and the 0z ECMWF are in close agreement especially at the 500 MB level... that leads me to have much bigger faith ( than I would otherwise) in the 6z GFS OR the 0z Euro.... but that is not the case thing this morning.

The euro hangs a lot of energy bang in the SW so the bottom of the trough beaks apart. Is the euro right or is that model showwng its characteristic bias with western US trough in digging Too much energy too far south? The euro ens says yes the op euro is hanging too much energy back in the sw at day 7-8 and 9. Still as many of you know I have been calling for a posisble significant event SOMEWHERE over the Eastern third of the of the CONUS 11/30 -12/1. I dont know IF the coastal Low that might develop b/c of the east coast trough ( as shown by the 00z and 6z GFS) is the event or not. It may just be this cold trough and blast of arcti air coming in.... and the Low may develop well off the coast.... keep in mind I first made that call last weekend -- NOV 11-12 . That being said I sort of like the way this is looking right now... But I am NOT in anyway declaring victory...