If you get the eastern Pacifc and Pac NW wrong you got NOTHING!!!...

I cannot spend as much time posting on the medium and long-range forecasts as I wish to as the next two- three days because I am in transit and moving the up to Northern Virginia. So the posts will kinda be a short side of... but I still should be able to cover all the major points.

One of things that you will notice in this web site and on this blog is that I try not to favor anyone particular region of the country. I do this for number reasons but one of the fundamental principles that I was taught early on as an undergrad was that If you cannot forecasts the Pacific Northwest & western Canada correctly thing you've got nothing. You got Bupkis... and any medium-range forecasts that you make in going to up in the crapper.

A classic example of this is the current pattern change which is going to occur this week across the Conus. Back on November 15 --16 when I started banging the drum about this probability of some sort of pattern change and then later on a significant pattern change ... I THINK I was the only doing so at THAT time ( but I might be wrong about that) . I do know that my early call of this possibility was greeted by a great deal skepticism in the usual weather forums. The reason I think this is not because it's DT.... since I had a reputation for NOT jump the gun and NOT gong for the hype... until I feel there is considerable amount of evidence... but because a lot of forecasters had misread what was going on Eastern Pacific.

This is a repeat in some ways of what went on Last winter. I am sure I don't have to remind you that the consensus forecast from a lot of well-known private forecast services was for a cold and stormy winter 2005-06 over the eastern US. There is very low emphasis outside of my self from any other forecaster that I know about the power of the Pacific Jet last winter enhanced by a persistently Postive EPO and the very neg QBO. IMO this is why most of the winter forecasts for a cold and /or stormy eastern US busted so badly.

This time around they seem to be this general except in said the Pacific Janet El Nino enahnced was gone keep on firing right to most of December and not really let up until either the middle portion of December or perhaps until after the holidays. Well if that is your assumption then you may be about to lose the game so let me buzz you out ... and say thanks for playing Johnny can you tell us what he's won as a consolation prize!?.....


The 0z and 12z data are very strong both the operational and the ensembles in showing that the +PNA is going to last through the first week of December may be to December 10-11... then after that who knows?? . Perhaps you don't know but let me remind you that the important SSTA in ENSO region 3.4 did NOT rise today...it held at +1.3c. If the El Nino is moving towards a moderate ENSO event if only for a few weeks... the idea that we can now turn cold across North America especially east to the Rockies for a 7-10 day period is VERY significant.

If we take a closer look at some of the details here... there is little doubt my mind now that the significant Low which develops over the Eastern US on December 1-- an event which I started talking about back on November 16-- is going to be a Midwest snowstorm. In particular the 12z GFS UKMET and ECMWF all show this wave developing from the Delta tracking NE towards southeast Ohio and perhaps up near Erie PA or western York state... although the midday European takes it will further west... very close to Detroit. Given again the Autumn pattern -- see my winter forecast -- that has already seen 4 or 5 significant Midwest Lows this sort of track really should NOT be a point of controversy.

Of course the usual sources of hype are trying to insist that somehow this pattern COULD possibly shift this Low towards East Coast blah blah blah. But don't you fall for that BS. In this ... moving from an extremely warm pattrern with the huge Ridge in the southeast towards a +PNA and + NAO... well you can say with a great deal of confidence that this is not an East coast track or even a inland East Coast threat.

Both 12z runs of the operational European and GFS at midday are very impressive with the 2nd Arctic air mass which comes down from western Canada into the Plains & Midwest... and to lessor degree into the East Coast.

Let me emphasize again one other point... which is a really important one not only for those who are trying to practice and learn synoptic meteorology but also those who are trying to trade energy markets. As I stated in the Winter forecast... In a week to moderate El Niño pattern the GFS in particular has a heavy bias to constantly breaking down any sort of cold pattern in the 11-15 day and the developing some sort trough on the West Coast. Sometimes this is going to be the correct way to go but a lot of times the operational GFS is going to be the outlier even against its own ensembles. This is going to result in a lot of folks killing the cold pattern prematurely and going to blow torch for the Week 2 forecast. ......"Oh sure it's going to cold for a few days but next week...man Look at that blowtorch... "

folks who make that sort of flippant and shallow remark really don't have a clue what the hell they are talking about.

The case in point is this current cold shot coming up in the 6-10 day. If you recall the 6-10 day from last week as well as the 11-15 day from last week... from the various private weather services as well as CPC... NONE had cold in the Eastern US. None .... why ? Because the operational GFS screwed up the Eastern Pacific and especially many the ensembles continued to show constant Pacific flow. Then as we got closer to D10 the pattern began to look like colder and more sustain cold. This is going to be a problem all winter especially the first half of season. Let this be a lesson to you and don't forget this Model tendency and you will do all right the rest of season.