6z GFS is CRAP; Its a true Midwest Chicago snowstorm + PNA looks to hold
not much time today.... first off the 00z ECMWF and GFS are in GREAT agreement on signfificant Midwest snowstorm coming with central and Northern ILL into estern MI seeing 6 or more inches of snow this weekend but the 6z GFS takes it all away.
lets be clear before some of you east coast or bust assholes cackle with villaneous glee -- the 6z GFS is bullshit and anyine with a brain can see it. The GFS says there is NO huge ridge over SE`coast. The 6z GFS model says in 60 hrs that ridge will be gone....
so I am going to hit 70 today and wed b/c of what then? The Klingons firing theot warp engines? The one thing we do KNOW about the next 3-4 days is that the SE ridge is strong and a fghter which means the s/w over TX / eastern OK and or the western Delta will be forced to travel NE along the and over the Ridge as the ridge slowly slies east.
This is a TEXT book case of why a NEGATIVE NAO is sooooooo important in he set up for a SECS/ HECS / MECS
look at the over whelming data
84 hr 500 MB 0z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084s.gif
72-96 hrs 0z ukmet
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/ukmet_00_panel.gif
72-96 hr ecmwf
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/cep00_9panel.gif
and the ENSEMBLES at 84 hrs almost every one of them have intense closed 500 Low over far eastern MO or downstate ILL or IND.... pay attention to C000 P001 P002 P003 P005 P006 P007 P008 AND P10
versus this BS....
84 hr 500 mb 6z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_084s.gif
ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE ... The 6z GFS is a Bogus run....
lastly remeeber all those pronouncement ( i was readings some of the older posts ver the weel at eastern) on how this cold blast in early DEC is NOT going to last and the Pacific Jet would break through and how dec would be mild?
they dont look too good right do they?
lets be clear before some of you east coast or bust assholes cackle with villaneous glee -- the 6z GFS is bullshit and anyine with a brain can see it. The GFS says there is NO huge ridge over SE`coast. The 6z GFS model says in 60 hrs that ridge will be gone....
so I am going to hit 70 today and wed b/c of what then? The Klingons firing theot warp engines? The one thing we do KNOW about the next 3-4 days is that the SE ridge is strong and a fghter which means the s/w over TX / eastern OK and or the western Delta will be forced to travel NE along the and over the Ridge as the ridge slowly slies east.
This is a TEXT book case of why a NEGATIVE NAO is sooooooo important in he set up for a SECS/ HECS / MECS
look at the over whelming data
84 hr 500 MB 0z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084s.gif
72-96 hrs 0z ukmet
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/ukmet_00_panel.gif
72-96 hr ecmwf
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/cep00_9panel.gif
and the ENSEMBLES at 84 hrs almost every one of them have intense closed 500 Low over far eastern MO or downstate ILL or IND.... pay attention to C000 P001 P002 P003 P005 P006 P007 P008 AND P10
versus this BS....
84 hr 500 mb 6z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_084s.gif
ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE ... The 6z GFS is a Bogus run....
lastly remeeber all those pronouncement ( i was readings some of the older posts ver the weel at eastern) on how this cold blast in early DEC is NOT going to last and the Pacific Jet would break through and how dec would be mild?
they dont look too good right do they?
posted by DT @ 11/28/2006 08:14:00 AM
9 Comments:
At 9:18 AM,
Anonymous said…
Keep up the great work, DT. You are definitely the one source I can rely on while all others are saying something totally different.
After this storm system/front moves through, do you see anything on the horizon for the next potential rain or snow storm for the eastern third of the country?
Ed in WV
At 9:36 AM,
Anonymous said…
How much for Chitown?
Kidding, kidding..
I agree with your assesment.
At 9:44 AM,
Anonymous said…
Nice writeup, DT.
You gotta stop starting your columns with "not much time today" or we'll start calling you Gary.
At 10:02 AM,
DT said…
ORD MAY SEE OVER 12 INCHES
At 11:52 AM,
Anonymous said…
Anyone see the new 12z GFS?? BIG shift to the east compared to previous runs, and for a place like Central PA that was "supposed" to be in the 60's and a cold frontal passage, now looks like highs in the 30's on Friday with a heavy wet snow!!
At 1:45 PM,
Anonymous said…
Cant wait to hear your thoughts on 12z runs DT. Seems like the eastcoast weenies are jumping all over it as well as those in the eastern OV.
I STILL say the models are not finished yet.
How many times do we see them do this? Back and forth crap? My guess is they settle down now with a final solution between lasts nights extreme west solution and todays east extreme solution. The se Ridge ( Which i see you pointed out ) says so. Yeah some may be able to argue the NAO but the ridge cannot be denied. I am sitting in the mid 60s and didnt fall below 50 last night. That should be sounding alarms further south and east.
Anyways cant wait to hear you take on it.
At 9:50 PM,
DT said…
so what who cares? its the 12z GFS and its crap-- the problem is that weenies like YOU see the 12z run and flip out IGNORING the se ridge that guys lke YOU were swearing at juts 36 hrs ago...
now suddenly the 12z GFS turns around and says " No such ting as a se ridge" and everyone believes it?
look that is NOT forecasting!! its weenie casting which is far worse the wishcasting...
how come this poster did not wait to say well NONE of the 12z ens support the 12 GFS operational run..
this is WHY there are ensembles
At 11:51 PM,
midatlanticweather said…
Major shift back west on 0z.. or should we say finally some model correction. Not sure if Chicago is Bullseye, but maybe.. and with some Lake Effect it could do quite well.
Set us straight DT!
At 11:55 AM,
DT said…
yeah I saw 0z models this wed morning
trend is my friend
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