WED AFTERNOON COMMENTS

While the e-mail is flowing fast and furious as more and more folks realize that this blog will be updated regualrly and it gets out there into the meteorological and weather hobbyist communities.

I am in the mist of a major overhaul of the snowstorm checklist and when it is done-- I hope by around December 1-- it should be the most comprehensive and arguably enjoyable thing for snowstorm lovers in the Northeast US to go to a regular basis during the cold season months. By the time is all said and done it will stun you with its comprehensiveness and I hope its ease-of-use. It's something I have always wanted to do but never had the time but now is the business doing so well I can cut back on some are other activities and make this snowstorm checklist the thing of beauty I've always wanted it to become.

As far as the midday stuff goes obviously the midday GFS has come about with a totally different solution than what the last several runs were showing with regard to the pattern shifting next week and the development of the deep trough over the East Coast. I don't consider the this 12a GFS run to be a viable solution as it has a far too much energy in the southwest US where it develops that huge upper Low over the Great Plains and Rockies which results in that blizzard that moves into the Upper Plains. Of course with that huge trough over the Rockies the Ridge over the Midwest becomes very strong... and the cold front is delayed significantly. But the time it reaches the East Coast the trough is a shadow but what they model was showing at6z and 0z .... as a result the cold air is essentially gone.

The midday European has a similar solution but not quite as extreme... and when the trough does reach the East Coast its still has a fairly strong amplitude with it and there is still quite of cold air. In fact the operational European stalls the front in a SSW to NNE alignment from Georgia to Cape Cod day 9.5 and day 10 with a very impressive temperature gradient over the middle Atlantic states....

The GFS ensembles on this Wednesday afternoon are not supportive of the operational run and have a lot more amplitude in the eastern trough at D8-9

Interestingly by D9-10 the 2z operational European shows the Pacific jet has split up into THREE distinct branches along the West Coast in North America. I will put this map up on the Modeltracker page later. IF that is correct and I don't know that it... then the patetrn COULD hold some promise for December across the central and eastern US with regard to seeing at least normal temperatures and still quite a storminess. You see when you have the Jet split put up into 2 or 3 branches they no longer have a uniform flow and it is easier to get the northern branch to buckle or amplify while the southern branch continues to bring in these significant systems from the Pacific. I'm not forecasting such a positive winter scenario development to occur I just think the D9-10 operational European has some promise. That's all just a promise no guarantees.