Models hinting at SECS / MECS day 9-10

afternoon idea I will post in the feedback section

Before we get into this morning's synoptic discussion I wanted to clear up a couple of points. First there is this contention that I have or that I did forecast a colder than normal winter over the eastern half of the US. That's not correct... MY winter forecast is very clear. The issue is colder than expected. While many of the weather wennies and even a few professional meteorologists that post on some of these weather boards have gone for a colder than normal winter (this really should come as no surprise to anyone since this is the popular thing to do).

Many of these same forecasters also did the same thing last Winter. However my winter forecasts are aimed at people who have to deal weather on a professional level such as those who might have a Ski business... Or run a transportation company or trade energy or agricultural commodities. In that respect many of the winter forecasts out there as well as what the General public perception from the Media IS for a milder than normal winter. Now if you are a weenie and you are incapable of looking at anything outside your own naval (or in this case your own PC) you probably don't realize that there is a heavy perception out there for a Moderate El Nino / Mild winter over much of the CONUS. However it that's not my problem... It's yours. The fact that you may not about it only speaks of your ignorance. Just because you don't see the moon on a cloudy night doesn't mean the moon isn't there. Just because you may not know although overwhelming consensus for warm biases this winter in the various consensus forecasts--- outside of the weather boards-- doesn't mean it is not there.

The second point I want to speak about again before get I get to the synoptics ...is the idea that because I am relocating to a more favorable winter climate that somehow another I am more positive or aggressive about the prospects for this winter in the Northeast/ Midwest. That would be true except for the fact that I made it very clear back in August and September long before I knew I was relocating that I was excited about the prospects for this winter. In fact way back in March & February 2006 in some discussions I had with other meteorologists over at easternuswx.com ( HM to be precise) I made several assertions about how I thought the winter of 2006 --07 was going to be a much more active winter then 2005-06.

I suppose someone could make the assertion that I am just being a contrarian. I suppsoe there is SOME truth to that but mostly it is that I am a skeptic when it comes to things that everybody called "knows" to be true. If "everybody" knows that it is going to the very active hurricane season I am more likely to go the other way until I am absolutely convinced of ALL the data. And when I see pieces of data sticking out like a sore thumb which doesn't seem to support the general consensus well that always sends off alarm bells in my head. If I think everyone is going for a colder than normal winter and I see data sticking out and arguing against that idea... well I am going to go the other way. I won't go the "other" way simply to piss people off but if I see data which is sticking out and I think it significant I will not change my mind either. For me it's a constant feedback process and walking a tightrope between being contrarian vs coming across as a crackpot. Between being sticking with ones ideas but not being so fixed that you can see the train coming down the tracks if you are going to be wrong. It is a Fine line ... and its call the Art of skepticism... if you want to read more about this philosophy and how I used it... you can read at this point here.

http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/skepticism.htm


OK let's get on to the actual some synoptics... it really is quite amazing to see the pattern repeating itself in the general overall sense as we move into middle of December and begin to look at the end of the month as well. It is in this same general overall sense that the pattern is redeveloping itself and if you can see this early soemtimes this can help a forecaster figure things. of course Just like no 2 patterns are exactly the same... not 2 analogs are exactly the same.

The first big event is the major system which is going to slam into Washington State on Thursday. Now I have several clients out of Pacific Northwest ... and back in late OCT at the Earthsat energy conference a lot of forecasters were NOT willing to go for the active winter in the Pacific Northwest with the general consensus that precipitation would run Below Normal over the very important Hydrological areas over all of the western US and especially in the Pacific Northwest. I argued that since I saw the vortex setting up in the Gulf Alaska either in the eastern Pacific or alongf the coast of British Columbia... that either position would (for the first portion of this winter at least) set up for very stormy Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately I was the only meteorologist that argued that position .... and in case you have not noticed its been damn stormy November and December over the Pacific Northwest and its going to get worse before it gets better. In my Winter forecast I argue for a essentially negative PNA and I see no reason to change that this particular time.


The reason why this Low-pressure areas important is because as it slides east along the US Canada border into the Great Lakes by the 17th and 18th. This sends a cold front through the Upper Plains the Midwest and the Northeast and that sets up a seasonally cold air mass in place. Then a Major s/w ( short wave) drops into the Great Basin and spins up a huge system for the Rockies while warm air from the Ridge over the SE sends warm air surgingnorthward. But because this time around we have a seasonally cold air mass in place over the Midwest and the Northeast it's going to take some time before the warm air surges north.

Eventually of course the big Low over the Plains states will move into the Great Lakes and when it does the warm air WILL surge into the Midwest and ortheast but it won't be quite as long with the extended warm period as well what we saw in late November.

Now looking beyond Day 7 I am sure many of you have seen the operational European attempting to build some sort of Ridge into southern Greenland. While this is a very encouraging sign it's NOT a "blocking Ridge" . Right now it's just an extension into southern Greenland. It qualifies as a negative NAO but its not a idea -NAO. Still it is better than nothing.

The next point to talk about is what happens again after Day 7. A couple days ago when the Model data showed a weak cold front followed by brief cooling then more Pacific Energy coming. This lead many to think -- and rightly so -- that any cold coming in after 12/20 over the central and / or eastern CONUS was not going to last and the cold pattern was not going to be very significant.... see my last Blog entry for more on this idea. There I mentioned last Saturday that one of the things I was concerned about was how in mid-November when it look like we were going to turn cold the early models at day 14 ... day 11 day 9 were just showing a brief cold shot and an as we got closer and closer towards the end November into early December the +PNA began to develop and these Bigger cold blasts satrrted showing up on the models. Now here were are a couple of days later and suddenly the 0z ecmwf 00z GFS and 6z GFS are all significantly colder as well... as we head towards Christmas.

It's pretty amazing to see how the models are just repeating the cycle again and I suspect this is going to continue. So if you are reading meteorologists say .."well sure the cold front on 12/21 will knock down the ridge over the Southeast for a few days but it wont last...' you may be reading somebody who may not be understanding the pattern. It seems to me that each new run we see bit more about colder pattern setting... and a but more of a +PNA ... and this is all very similar to what we saw in how the medium-range and extended range models were handling the pattern back in Mid and late November.


As you can see I am a pretty big believer in seasonal patterns and I like the way this SEEMS to be shaping up. It may be we could go through the entire winter this way!! The major trough comes into the West coast ... the ridge develops over the SE ... there is some sort of frontal boundary over the Great Lakes and Northeast ... the warmth does reach into the Midwest and East coast for a few days before the cold front sweeps through... followed by a more active stormy pattern with seasonal cold surging back in.

Sometimes you do get some are winter seasons with the patterns definitely repeat and the best example of this that I can think of would Winters of 1993-1994 and 1986 --87. (just using these as examples to show repeating patterns NOT as analogs for this Winter!!!!) For example many of us can recall how severely cold snowy ....and icy 1993 --94 was. However some of you may not recall that winter featured several very distinct up intervals of mild weather followed by the severe cold and the storminess and each one lasted about 9-10 days and it almost reached the point where you or could set a clock by it. And this also occurred in January February of 1986 -87 when the pattern turned stormy air as well.

Lastly I have seen the D10 0z European operationally of course with the big system in the southern stream over th TX / Delta and some cold air place over the Northeast... but this system shows up little way on the 0z 288 hr GFS as well as the 6z... which Could be soemthing tio watch for over the long holiday weekend. And there might even be another system beyond that.

Now none of you should be counting on these events as "likely" or even a reasonable chance event. What these models are showing us though is that IF the pattern does turn cold ver the eastern CONUS --- and this is a big IF!!!! --- we move later into the winter and the Jet stream continues to drop will further south then all this Energy coming in for the Pacific Northwest could end of making up a for several stormy intervals at some point this winter... and that is the critical idea that we should be focusing on here this morning in these extended long-range models in week 2 and week 3