12z thurs 12/14 SPECiAL

The TREND is MY friend but it aint yours !!!!


The midday American model h turned strongly towards the 0z Euro and how it handles the SW low 12.22-23 which IS a winter storm RISK for the Middel Atlantic even through the 12z THUR op GFS model shows a the SW Low sliding off the SE coast as a Flat wave

If you recall from this morning the problem was that the Operational 0z and 6z GFS took the 5H low ut of the Southwest states and merged it with another s/w coming in from the upper Plains. This system then drop heavy snow over Texas and Oklahoma as well as portions of eastern Kansas Northwest Arkansas and Missouri and significant rain for the deep South and Midwest and East Coast. And it was not until this Low pressure area cleared East Coast on the 22nd the cold air finally return.

The midday op GFS model is different and much closer towards the European British and Canadian solutions from this morning. It now shows the northern s/w is NOT going to drop into the Low over the Southwest states but instead track through the Midwest as a very decent system in its own right and development significant rain and/or snowstorm for the Midwest and New England 12/19-20. Hello 0z ecmwf and ukmet!!!

The trend is my friend

If we were to accept the American model solution here at midday "verbatim " this system would bring significant rain to the BIG cities of the NE such as Philadelphia New York and possibly Boston... and significant snow to places such as Indianapolis Detroit Toldeo Leo Buffalo Albany and much of New England

Then after this first Low pressure area passes off the coast the Low over the Southwest states and the lower Plains comes eastward. The midday American model is weaker with this BIG Low coming out of the SW and thus does NOT show a major snow fall for OK NM northern and western Texas. Instead this system just brings rain to central and southern Texas and moves across the Gulf Coast 12/21-22.

BY the 12/21 -22 the 1st Low moves thru the NE and has passed through off the coast and cold air moves in... reaching into KY TN and northern NC. The midday American model takes the Low over the Gulf Coast states and suppresses it by moving it off the Southeast coast BUT the pattern actually favors this Low over SE NOT sliding off the Southeast coast BUT turning NE and with all this cold air in place the potential would still exist for possible winter storm for the Middle Atlantic Coast12/22-23.

There is a Noitceable 50/50 In place as well a ICELAND Ridge ....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_180.shtml

By Day10 ( 12/24) seasonally cold air covers much of the central and northern CONUS and there is a fairly strong Ridge over western Canada. But the Jet stream here has split which means that energy is coming in on the southern into the West coast UNDER the ridge over western Canada. This is often a very stormy pattern for the CONUS and the Midday American Model shows a very potent system diving Southeast into the over the central Rockies / Great Basin on the 24th-25th while a large cold area of High pressure stretches from Southwest Canada all the way into Buffalo. If we take the Midday American Model verbatim at day 11-13 this run is screaming a major snowstorm for the Midwest and the Northeast.

264 hrs Major 50/50 is in place which is why this LOOKS promising
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml

288 hrs more of the same DONT sweat the 850 temps at this point
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_288.shtml

Not surprisingly behind this winter storm the model shwos more significant cold air in the 11-15 day. In My opinion I think the American model at midday is much closer to reality than what we were seeing this morning. I am of course very uncertain about the potential for major winter storm across the US right around Christmas but the potential so there and it has to be watched.