increassing signs of major Pattern shift end of the month

If you recall the euro from just a few days there was talk about the Upper that is going to form off the SE coast Tuesday.... retrograding back into FL then into the gulf of Mexico and perhaps developing some tropical characteristics... HPC even tlaked about that back on the 8th or 9th
well over the weekend the euro as well as all the MR models have been showing this coastal Low riding North bringing either heavy rains to some portions of the East coast OR Just offshore. Either way with the HIGH to the North the presure graident will increase and having a N wind at 20-30 MPH from SC to Cape cod is NOT going to allow the warmth over the Plains and Midwest to push past the Appalachains until Much later

Sorry heat mongers you ARE going to lose this one. Oh sure the Low will eventually move the off the Northeast cast-- the 12z Sunday Euro has it over SE New England. The other Key point about this that this Low is the 5th or 6th major to develop or affect the East coast since OCT1.

what does that mean? beats me -- although I have some ideas... but if you think this is NOT going to be a busy winter for the East coast your are either drunk or on crack.

I see the 1st major Low for the eastern third of the CONUS this winter season in or around DEC 1 and the dramatic change in the Ecmwf over this weekend is leading me to believe the day 11-15 GFS ensmebles from last friday and yesterday might be correct

The 1st image is the 0z day 10 euro which BTW does have strong ens support from the Ecmwf ens runs... Note the Massive greenland Block .... and the breakdown of the northeast Pacfic Vortex! One can clearly see the Ridge developing in the eastern Pacific as the long wave trough forms over in the central Pacific

and the 12z euro which show major amplification underway over the eastern Pacific / west coast ... but it also has has less of Massive Greenland block . Still the 500 MB heights are over Greenland are clearly rising ....

here is the 00z GFS ensembles at 276 valid DEC 1 and as you can Many of the member have some sort of moderate to strong s/w movng though the eastern third of the US
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_00z/f276.gif


The 12z is even more pronounced at 264 hrs-- 11/20/2006
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f276.gif

Member P02 P03 p09 and P010 are all flat but the others members ARE impressive to say the least Now all this being said Please dont ask me if this is snow or rain.... for your area. First of all I dont give a shit about YOUR area more than any one else in case you have figure that out yet and second its way too early.

I am going to shift all my focus to the vastly improve snowstorm checklist to have to ready by the end of the month. It will stun you by its comprehsniveness and as a forecastng tool.