ENSO 3.4 rises Finally to +1.3 C -- winter canceled

pay attention here... if I forecasted a SECS/ MECS or HECS every week for 4 or 5 straight weeks and I was wrong every week.... and then I finally ht one.. would I get any credit for forecasting ?

God almighty I hope to hell not. Yet this is exactly what we are seeing WRT the weekly ENSO region 3.4 SSTAs that came out late this morning and FINALLY reached +1.3c

Big fooking deal.

Keep in mind folks the very same warm mongerers that backed in July an August that were speculating about a Strong El Nino... who have since backed away from that BS... have been predicting that Enso region 3.4 rsing to +1.3c for the past 6 weeks. One guy a met student a Millersville U in PA has been saying enso would rise to 1.3 every week since Mid OCT -- his posts on this can be seen over at DBM or eastern..

That fine. Forecasting mean sometimes you will be wrong. But despite the fact that every week his calls have been wrong ... when the enso 3.4 finally does reach +1.3 for 1 week... it should not be viewed as big deal

Moderate El Nino events dont bring 90 degree temps to Calif -- it rains there. Moderate El nino events do NOT prodcue droughts in the Plains.... all you have to do is look at the standard boiler plate from TWC or CPC on the winter effects of moderate and strong El Nino event to see this. Clearly we are NOT in a pattern anything clsoe to a moderate El Nino.

El Nino does NOT suddenly appear or kick in when the enso 3.4 reaches +1.3c. El Nino is a dynamical process . IF and when the Enso 3.4 rises and holds to +1.3 or say +1.5 for say 4 weeks AND we seee a classic Moderate El Nino pattern over North America THEN we will see.

The 0z Euro gaian was strong with the pattern amplification. For those follow the Phase of the MJO... in 10 days or so we will be movng into phase 4 which DOES support some amplification ... one that does NOT last mind one but we will have to see about that .

the 12z Euro and Gfs show My POSSIBLE signiicant eastern US Low -- SEUL for 11/.30 12/1. The 12z GFS is fooking whacko after day 10 and way over done but even the 12z Monday day 9 9.5 and day 10 operational European shows a classic Miller B Midwest Low jumping to the LI coast set up.