the COMING STUNNING pattern flip

It's sunny it's a warm and its spectacular here in early January in northern Virginia so I will make this short and sweet. The stunning turnaround which is about to take place in the overall pattern across North America is going to be historic. But by that I mean do not its intensity y but in its complete reversal of what we've seen over the last eight or nine weeks.

Let me emphasize that point for clarity one more time. I am not talking about some sort of historic severe cold per se although the cold by the end of the month might be impressive. What I am referring to when I use the phrase "historic pattern flip" is that when you compare what we have seen for most of November most of December and the first 10 or days in January... it will be amazing. To the average person this may seem somewhat confusing because when you use the hear or read term "historic pattern change" they may think of things such as Big snowstorms and severe cold. I am usiong the term in a somewhat esoteric level... since I am referring to synoptic scale. I suppose I am talking to here for meteorologists and those who have detailed understanding of weather patterns.

Clear? Probably not but at this point I am simply going to make myself as clear as I can be and if people wish to revel in their own stupidity well that is their constitutional right.

We'll start out by showing be operational 12z GFS FRIDAY -- yesterday --and the first map here is the 240 hour from midday Friday.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/gfs_500_240s.gif

As you can see it shows some remarkably bad forecasting about how the pattern is going to develop. Notice the model has shows that BIG Ridge over the southeast US which of course delays the cold front even further but it also has that s/w hanging back over the Southwest. The problem is that if you take a look at the 12z fri 240 hr -- VALID JAN 15 -none of the al GFS ensembles yesterday supported such a massive Ridge over the FL and the southeast coast
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/f240.gif

None. And several of the members actually showed a possible SECS event.

All this continues to be problem of the op- GFS that is simply overdoing the depth of the trough and the amount of cold air that comes into the Pacific Northwest.

Another case of this is 12z 288 hr 12z GFS... which features two major short ways in very close proximity over the western US. These two short waves that develop then Phase over the SW sattes which pops a ridge over the SE sattes and the Polar Jet is forced back north ... thus the eastern Half d the US looks very Mild again.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/gfs_500_288s.gif

But once more if we take a look at the GFS ensembles will see that the 288 HR OP gfs solution has absolutely no support whatsoever. I highlighted the operational GFS with the red blue Circle -- top row way over to the LEFT and you can see that none of the other ensembles show any sort solution like that and many are impressively cold and stormy.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/f288.gif


We see major changes on 0z runs of the operational GFS here this Saturday morning. This next map shows the 228 hr 0z op GFS--- again valid for the same time -- Jan 15... and of course we can see that the strong Ridge over the southeast is Gone.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/0zgfs_500_228s.gif

The 6z op GFSAT 336 hrs shows a very promising looking scenario setting up as the overall pattern splits into 3 branches --we can see the Ridge over the western Canada with Arctic Jet continues ... a s//w in the PJ approaching the Pacific Northwest and a s/w in the some tropical jet over Southern California and Baja.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/6zgfs_500_336s.gif

Finally we can see the operational run of the 0z European which is extremely impressive in several ways. To begin with its much faster with the cold ffront as it moves through Midwest & Northeast.

The 0z op EURO which unlike the last several runs of the op GFS is strongly support by the European ensembles-- shows the cold front moving through the Northeast by the 14th and that it stalls at West East direction across the Virginia North Carolina border west over the KY TN border and it drops into the upper Delta. The model develops a several waves of Low pressure along the front including the first significant snow event for the Northeast on the 14th into the 15th and another one for the lower Plains the Tennessee Valley and Middle Atlantic on the 16th. The difference here it with the European model is that the upper level Low that ALL the models have over the southwest or Rockies at day 6-7 is forced to stay South because the European model as well most of ensembles show a very strong Arctic Ket OVER at western Canada that drops SE towards the Great Lakes.
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/0Z168ecmwf.gif

http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/0z192ec.gif

http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/0z240ec.gif

As a result the 500 low is forced eastward and cannot track towards the Great Lakes.... instead it HAS to stay further south which knocks down the Ridge over the southeast much faster and potential exists for significant what to weather for the first time all winter over the East Coast.


I suspect that when we see the midday Saturday calls the GFS the model probably flip back again and show a very deep all the last much bigger Ridge over southeast. And if the model does not do it on this front it'll do it on each PC one or some run on Sunday ... which in turn will cause more widespread weenie consternation and suicides. Not until we get within seven days how the actual event--- Jan 15-7 = Jan 8 will the operational GFS begin to carry any way with me whatsoever.

In fact do not be surprised if at some point the GFS swings all the way around to the OTHER extreme ... ocne the model sees the cold is coming east that huge Pig ridge will collapse on the model and I would not be surprised if the front is supressed all away into the Gulf Coast!!