***Editted for 12z EURO & GFS ensembles*** BLIZZARDS & ARCTIC COLD HEADED FOR SEATTLE PORTLAND & PAC NW?

OLD MAN WINTER IS SINGING UP A STORM...

I'm a runaway train on broken track
I'm a ticker on a bomb, you can't turn back
This time... That's right...
I got away with it all and I'm still alive
Let the end of the world come tumbling down
I'll be the last man standing on the ground
As long as COLD blood runs through my veins
I'm still alive...


Over the weekend in case you missed the official reading for ENSO 3.4 SSTA came out from CPC and it showed Enso 3.4 SSTA holding at +1.2. This would indicate that the ENSO has stabilized at the low end of the moderate intensity... correct? Well not so fast Mr Naso!!!

First the data period that CPC uses end 12/27. Here is a link from the Aussie folks that they use to monitor ENSO El Niño and as you can see their data period ends as of 12/30... nd they had a much lower reading all of +1.06!!!
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml


Now at this point you could argue which one is correct since these are significantly different readings. However after giving it a little consideration it should be clear to all that the Australians are correct and that CPC is once again behind the eight ball. CPC was playing catch up in declaring the La Nina last winter dead in the Spring and they were behind the eight ball in declaring the current El Niño was now in effect. In addition keep in mind that the Australians of course have that later cut off time for their analysis and that over the last 12 to 16 weeks every time the Australians of come up with a different reading ....whether it was when the El Niño was warming or cooling ( as it is now) CPC has always a followed week or two later. And lastly let me point out that the low-level easterly winds are increasing across equatorial Pacific and that is helping to bring about the demise of the El Niño. These winds the first start appearing in Mid in December and the new data here on January 2 shows these winds are actually increasing.

I do not want to focus completely on the El Niño as being the sole cause of the exceptionally mild winter most of North America has seen. There are other causes for example be very strong positive values QBO... along with a pool of very warm water off the Southeast coast of Canada which is been there since Midsummer... as well as a negative phase of the PDO. As you can see there are a lot of things wrong with the overall pattern if you like cold and or snowy conditions over the central and eastern portions of the CONUS... and because there are so many things wrong it's also going to take a lot of time to get the pattern to into a more typical winter pattern.
Therefore it is imperative that you do not RUSH things and we sit back and see how it develops. Besides the El Niño weakening we also have the QBO falling below +10 ( we will know for certain the actual QBO values by the end of this week) and the large pool of extremely warm water which is been located off the Southeast coast of Canada has now almost completely dissipated.

There's also some dispute as to whether or not what is coming IS a pattern change or something else. Quite frankly I cannot see how anyone could argue that this is not pattern change. I think such argument is borderline delusional. Here are the current 850 temperatures over North America as of 1am JAN2. http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/init/gfsx_850_init.html

Now here are the 850 MB Tt 10 days later.
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_850_10d.html

How any meteorologist can look at this can see no pattern change is well shocking. It seems that the entire premise that there is no pattern change coming for the eastern third US is based on the idea that it has been very mild over the past 6-7 weeks... ( correct) it is now mild ( again corect) and Jan 10 it will still be mild... ( OK) ergo no pattern change.

This sort of focus on my own back yard attitude in meteorology is really quite unprofessional. The fact that it is warm Now over YOUR or my location is NOT the defining criteria as to whether the pattern has changed. Just because a snowstorm missied your house and you did NOT get 12" of snow in your backyard does not mean that the snowstorm was not a significant event. Likewise just because your location may see several more mild /warm days does not mean that the pattern has not changed.

The first strong cold front that comes the Midwest and Northeast January 7-is only gping to last 1-2 days but it is going to be the first significant cold front in several week. Most of the model data shows that in place of the deep vortex over the Bering Sea and Alaska we are going to see a massive Ridge form which will establish a very strong cross polar flow from the arctic regions into much of Western in southwestern Canada. This is why the arctic air builds a very rapidly with even the normally conservative European model showing 850 temperatures as low as -30c and the surface arctic High-pressure system that develops in western Canada reaching a strong as 1060 mb.
Not a pattern change?

The Bititer cold will initially is going to plunge down western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest's as well as the Upper Plains and central Canada. The dispute is how fast does the cold reach the Mississippi River and the East Coast??? SCENARIO A: a deep trough forms over the West Coast which would send very cold air into Los Angeles BUT cause a strong Ridge to form over the Southeast CONUS and this delay cold air crossing the Mississippi river until Jan 16
SCENARIO B : A broad shallow trough U SHAPED troughh forms over SW Canada and the Pacific Northwest which will allow for a Flatter Ridge over the Southeast and therefore the cold air would arrives over the Midwest and the Northeast much faster. By the end of this week we should have a pretty good idea which of these two possible scenarios is going to be correct.

Over the past eekend many of the GFS model runs especially the operational runs were OVER er developing this trough by over doing the shortwave that drops in the Pacific Northwest... which results in a huge broad trough over the West Coast which would drive the Arctic cold air all into central California the great Basin and the Rokcies and place the arctic boundary over the western Upper Plains. In response to that the operational GFS models over the weekend also over developed a HUGE Ridge either over the Southeast coast of just off the Southeast coasts.... with some of the model showing a massive PIG 592 dm Ridge.
It should obvious from the get go that these two features are connected-- a huge deep trough of the West Coast means a huge strong Ridge off the Southeast coast but apparently from reading some of the weatherboards this sort of basic synoptic meteorology and logic escaped a lot of folks. oh well .
Fortunately most of the GFS ensembles do not develop a large deep trough that reaches into central California in the week 2 nor does the operational European or the European ensembles. Instead they show a broad U-shaped trough which means that much flatter Ridge over the Southeast and has implications for the whether in the Northeast by the middle portions of the month.
By 300 hrs the op GFS shows the deep trough over the West coast with Seattler & portland getting hammered... but most of the ensembles are MUCH faster with the trough progression.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/f300.gif
Take Vebatim the last few runs of the op GFS means that one would have to forecast the RISK of seeing SEVERAL major snowstorms ( major snowstorm is relative to what those areas typically see when it does snow there!!!) over the 2nd and 3rd week of January for the Portland and Seattle.
Once that huge arctic HIGH begins to drop southward into southwestern Canada pieces of this High of going to break off in the confluent flow along the US Canada border moving through the Great Lakes into northern New England. These Baby HIGHs -- 1040 MB or so -- will be able to drive a backdoor front across the Northeast AFTER Jan 10-12... provided that the Ridge over the Southeast US is not very strong. This is why the ensembles ideas and the pattern shown by the European is much more significant because they're showing a flatter Ridge over the Southeast coast which in turn means that the baby Highs moving across the Great Lakes and North new Engand will get a chance to drive significantly cold air into the Northeast.
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The 12z OP GFS after 180 hours is seriously flawed and well just dam silly. Let look at the pattern up to 180 hrs.... BEFORE the model TRUNCATES... that is before the RESOLUTION shifts to a MUCH more coarse grid...

note that the 1st Low on the arctic front has moved into the Pacific NW at day 7 and 7.5 and can bee seen at the surface over ID and western MT.... but there is ANOTHER powerful s/w ...according to the Model Off the Alaskan Panhandle coast-- see the big RED blob on the 500 MB prog.

DAY 7
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_168.shtml
DAY 7.5
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_180.shtml

BUT BY 216 hours when the op GFS model resolution collapses .... the much more coarse and less refined op GFS screws up and drops that BIG RED blob due south into the west coast which in tuns carves out a HUGE trough and a closed 500 low over the West coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_216.shtml

Once that trough is there... the GFS builds it as it tries to phase the energy coming in over the Alaskan Ridge .... so the trough expands and the Ridge over the SE coast builds.

Bullshit.

The 12z GFS ensembles all show the tuesday op 12z GFS to full of crap...
First.... at 180 hr ALL of the ensembles members show the trough over the NE CONUS is deeper than what the operational 12z GFS shows
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f180.html

By day 10--- well forget about it... the 12z OP GFS is fooking clueless as to how to handle the pattern change... ONLY one other member (p007) supports the 12z GFS with a deep trough over the Pac NW and western Canada-- the other 10 members show the trough progressing nicely
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f240.html


by 288 hrs it is even worse with the 12z op GFS only having 1 member showing a Big 500 low over the Pacific NW. !!!! This should tell you the 12z op GFS after day 7 is crap

The 12z EURO is also faster with the cold air pushing east and is very much NOT like the 12z op GFS.... More importantly the op Euro shwo the Big low over Greenland -- the positive NAO sliding east into the Northeast and NEUTRAL heights developing over eastern Canada!!!!
http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/test9.jpg





http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/test9.jpg