Its NOT Brain Surgery folks but you do have to STOP using the Op GFS runs

Its not brain surgery ...

but before I start this morning let me introduce a NEW and New model link as well . First the model link from the fabulous Penn State E. Wall site... a whole new page on the ensembles products from the 0z 6z 12z and 18z GFS ensembles as well as the Canadian. I will be using some of these in a few minutes.

The introduce a new terminology here in the weather business.... a term that is used to describe a particularly offensive and aggravating type of weather hobbyist or weather WEENIE .... PCW... which stands for Pathetic Crybaby Weenie. I suppose it's understandable that given the amount of access there is to all sorts of weather model information out there on Internet and how mild and the uneventful the winter has been for much of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River... that they would be a lot of anxious weather hobbyist and weenies out there who are looking forward to any sort of sign that the pattern might be changing into something closer to normal for mid-January.

However when you are dealing with the PCW... none of that actually matters. A PCW wants to see their snow right away this second God dam it and if he does not have HIS snow then obviously it's the end of the world. The PCW is simply unable to grasp any sort of reality and time has no sense or meaning. Thus if you forecast the pattern to change January 15 and its January 4 and the pattern as NOT changed then clearly the pattern change is not coming and the winter's total bust.

In addition the PCW is not really interested in the science of Meteorology but only in the perpetual chase of the BIG or historic snowstorm. One of the ways that you can detect a PCW as opposed to regular weenie is that PCW often makes a post with a really idiotic or ostentatious sounding alias or handle... in order to impress other people that they know what the hell are talking about. For example they may have a handle and make weather posts under the name of say superstorm Andrew or blizzard of1888 when really they probably should be posting under the name DORKWAD 2007. What is even more offensive about the PCW's is that they are growing at a exponential rate on therse weather Boards and the refusal of some of moderators at the various weatherboards to intervene is really causing quite a bit of anxiety and consternation --judging from my e-mail -- among professional forecasters as to whether or not they should be interacting with the general public and especially the weather weennie community.


OK let's get to the synoptic meteorology. For the life of me I cannot figure out what was causing all the anxiety in consternation yesterday afternoon on the various weatherboards for the anticipated pattern change. I see absolutely no reason the back off the idea that the cold air is going to return to the eastern US in and around January 15. That being said let me emphasized that January 15 is NOT the same thing is January 4 and is not the same thing is January 10 . This point is so obvious it's hard to believe that it needs to be stated but apparently after reading the various weatherboards... it's obvious that it has to be. If it is supposed to be warm from say January 10 to the 14 and it is warm... that is NOT a forecast bust.

Oh I suppose that IF one were to give any consideration to the last several runs of the operational GFS one could find some reason to be pessimistic but only a imbecile would do such a thing. It's very clear and very obvious with the operational runs of the GFS have been doing over the last SEVERAL days. The operational GFS model is driving far two much energy down the West Coast of Canada into the US and is PHASING the two streams into a deep long wave trough. The model is doing this because the classical INFMAOUS COLD AIR BAIS that many of us know about with regard to the operational GFS.

I made this a critical point in my Winter forecast ----that during these months of the moderate El Niño we would see the GFS constantly over develop West Coast troughs by over phasing the two streams and making large long wave trough on the West Coast which in turn develop a very strong Ridge over the southeast US. And sure enough that is is exactly what we have been seeing over the last several days/ runs.

BUT since many folks over the eastern US are not familiar with the GFS cold bias when it shows up on the West Coast it seems that a lot of folks and even some forecasters have forgotten the OP GFS cold bias. Yes over the Eastern US the op GFS suppress storms off the southeast coast in the cold season because it has two much northern stream action and not enough energy in southern stream. Everybody's is familar with THAT concept. However on the West Coast the same problem exists but since over the last several years all we have seen is a perpetual RIDGE over the West Coast very few forecasters and hobbyists are familiar with the cold bias when it does show up on the WEST coast.

In fact winter weather lovers actually should've been encouraged by yesterdas model runs. I know I certainly was and I still am. To be sure there are a lot of uncertainties involved in extended a long-range forecast for the middle and end of January. But one of the things that I saw in the pattern yesterday and I still see today is the development of a closed cut off 500 Low over the West Coast that in fact retrogrades off the central or Southern California coast at day 9-10 -11. As a general rule a close 500 blow over the southwest US does support a flat Ridge over the southeast or just off the southeast coast and while this can make for a cold pattern and potentially stormy 18 does significantly reduces the chance of seeing a severe Arctic outbreak over the central eastern US. There been many instances on short wave energy coming out of this 500 low and developing into significant winter storms again for the eastern half of the conus but in terms of Arctic outbreaks you don't get a big one if you have a large 500 low over the southwest US.

However if the closed cut off 500 Low over the West Coast does in fact retrogrades off the California coast then we end up with a fundamentally different pattern altogether across North America. Such a Retrogression would in fact set up a Omega or Rex Block... with the cutoff 5h Low over the eastern Pacific... and the Ridge over Alaska.

If that were to happen -- and this is a BIIIIIIIG IF -- you end with an extremely favorable pattern for winter weather over all the eastern US because the 500 low in this El Niño pattern would eject several strong short ways into Southern California and the southwest....in the southern stream that would move across the US and a pretty good clip.... while the Northern branch would be free to drop down across western Canada and to the Upper Plains into New England. It would not be a Bitter cold as pattern but it certainly does offer the potential for significant waves of Low pressure developing on stalled Front over the lower Plains and Deep South as over running events into the cold air across the Midwest and Northeast. Again this is all speculation to occur after January 15 because we simply do not know as to whether or not we are going to see a REX block.


Already by Day 7 we can see major differences developing over the eastern US with when you compare the operational 0z European to the operational 0z GFS... as you can see the European has significant lower Heights over the Great Lakes and New England where as the GFS is just blow torching everybody. In addition the western US trough over the GFS is far deeper than it is over the European. But the Op GFS gets worse...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168s.gif
http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/NORTH-AMERICA_ECMWF_500_GPH_168HR.gif

By Day 12 for example if we were to look at JUST the operational run of the GFS --and again I cannot figure out from life to me WHY any forecaster with any professional skill would do such a stupid thing... we can see the model of showing a huge trough over the southwest US and a gargantuan monster Ridge over the southeast and at Northern Gulf Coast area. This solution on the face of it is ludicrous and all you have to do is use any of the numerous ensembles upon which are out there to see how badly flawed the operational GFS is in this solution. I am using the 288 hour time frame here as an example but one could use the operational GFS and various time frames and come up with the same sort of proof.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_288s.gif

Now compare that solution of the operational 0z GFS (which argues that the Ridge over the southeast is so fooking Huge that it is going to stay warm until July) ... to the ensemble mean which is the map on the LEFT SIDE -and you can see right away the huge vast differences between the two.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/f288.html

Again I have to emphasize that any forecaster out with even minimal skill can see that the operational GFS is again in the model outlier from ALL the other data and not just within the GFS per se but within the Canadian ensembles and the European ensembles as well.


If you take a look on a map on the RIGHT hand side again the white lines refer to the operational run. The white line that is closest to the equator is the operational run 576 dm line... the Middle white line is 552 dm line... the 2 white lines closest to the Arctic region are the 528 and 486 dm lines respectively.

Now take a look at the red lines... The RED lines are the various ensemble members of the 576 dm height line . Compare those RED lines to the southernmost white line which is again the operational run showing the 576 dm Height line. Notice how all the ensembles members show a much flatter weaker Ridge when compared to the white line. Then if you take a look at the middle white line... which is the operational run depicting the 552 dm height lines and compared to all the green lines you will see again that most of the Green lines are significantly further south and east and what the operational run at 0z is showing.
This can be seen even better by taking a look at the actual ensemble members themselves at this link. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTNH_0z/f288.html

Again the top map on the upper left corner is the operational running you can see the huge monster rage it has over the southeast. As you can see there's absolutely no support of any type for the operational GFS at 288 hours. All other model runs of the GFS ensembles show the cold air has driven into the eastern US or is about to. There are a few of the members that still show a weak Ridge well off the southeast coast that is rapidly leaving and there is no indication of support of any sort of monster 588 dm PIG ridge over the se and Gulf coast.
None... really this is NOT brain surgery folks but it does require some commonsense and the use of all the ensembles to figure out what the most likely solution is going to be.

This last link will show you the 288 hour hemispheric display with all the members of showing positive and negative height anomalies. Again on the top row upper left map is the operational run and you can see the huge area of bright red which shows a very strong positive high anomaly or in other words a RIDGE -- over the southeast... but again that none of the other members show any sort of huge anomaly like that parked over the southeast on January 15.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/f288.html

Unfortunately I cannot show you the European ensembles but they are cold. The operational run has the cold ffront driving into the Deep South January 13-14 with 850 temps at
-12c over PHL to DTW and New England is even colder. Unlke the operational GFS the operational European is deeply embedded within the ensembles mean so the model is NOT an outlier. In addition I can tell you that the ensembles mean of the European model is showing a significant ice storm for middle Atlantic and New England as it develops a wave on the stalled font over the Tennessee Valley... with a large 1030 + MB High over the eastern Great Lakes JAN 14-15... however because the upper-level heights are too high it does not appear to be a snow event but the potential is there for a significant ice storm because of the low-level cold air.

Least but also First the QBO dropepd DRAMATICALLY in DEC to well under +10 to a value of +6.10... this combined with a weakening El Nino tells me the 2nd of the winter will be impressively cold and stormy for much of the US as it has been warm and dry. The comination of weakening moderate El Nino and near neutral QBO winters are a LOCK -- as much as one can have such thing in seasonal forecasting for a Good if not GREAT 2nd half of winter and a delayed spring