GIVE IT TIME FOLKS

Happy New Year ya sick twisted freaks!!!

While the model data continues to increase that there's going to be some sort of pattern change after January 10 please keep in mind that we are still a looooooooong way from January 10 and this is going to be veeeeery slow process. I think the models from a few days ago which were hinting at the cold getting back into the eastern third of the CONUS by January 10 -- or even before that- were probably too fast. There are an awful lot of things which HAVE to change in the pattern across Northern Hemisphere and it going take a long time before things are finally set up in a more favorable position for those wishing colder temperatures.

The point is you've got to give this time and even as pattern begins to change into something -- exactly what that "something" is we dont know yet-- there are going to be other problems.
This first map shows you the overall atmosphere of pattern dated 12/23 and it can see their several very prominent features.
http://wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/t-23.gif

You can clearly see the strong for Texas centered or far west Alaska or the Bering Sea and you can clearly see that the NAO is strongly positive and that there is no vortex of any type over the Western Hemisphere.

This next map dated 12/29 does not show a lot of changes occurring. So again I have to emphasize that people slow down with the pattern change. http://wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/t0.gif

In a medium-range there is a another important shortwave which is going to drop into Southwest at the end of THIS week and bring significant rain to eastern Texas the Delta the Deep South the Tennessee Valley Southeastern states and the mid-Atlantic region. As this shortwave move off the coast it will begin to cause heights to rise a little bit over the far Northwest Atlantic.

But then the weather models drop another important shortwave into the West Coast and Great Basin. This feature brings about heavy snow to the Mountains of California and the Great Basin but it does not look like it's going to be a major snow event for Colorado this time. Instead the models show his system dropping into southern Arizona and New Mexico early next week.


At the same time will are seeing SOME signs early next week of a Height rise developing over the eastern Pacific as the vortex over the Bering Sea begins to either breakdown or retrograde back into eastern Siberia. I emphasize this point in the last update and do so again today. It really doesn't make a difference where that vortex moves. You see in its current position the Bering sea vortex TELECONNECTS to a strong large flat Ridge over the central portion of the Northern Pacific. Thus the Pacifc Jet is "squeezed: between the flat Ridge to South and the vortex over the Bering Sea.... and is able to obtain very high velocities as it slams into the Western portions of North America. And it is these very strong winds speeds or velocities at 200 and 300 MB that insures No west coast Ridge amplification as well as floods the CONUS with mild Pacific air.

So if the vortex over the Bering Sea where to shift to the into Eastern Siberia this in turn would pull the mean trough position from the Rockies back to off the West Coast and would favor a Ridge to develop over the Western portions of North America. Likewise if the vortex over the Bering Sea were to slide EAST into the Gulf of Alaska... this would bring back a pattern much like we saw in September and October. A large pool of very cold air would develop over Western Canada which does not exist now.

To get back to the synoptic points about next week... I think what happens to this new s/w over the SW sattes will be critical as to how the pattern change is going to develop over central and eastern North America. Once the shortwave over the West Coast swings into Northern old Mexico and southwestern TX... some of the models take the system up to the Midwest which of course brings a notice fairly strong Ridge over to the Southeastern states and keeps East Coast mild almost until the middle portion of the month. However the midday Sunday GFS keeps this system suppressed to the South with heavy rain or Southeast and a possible winter storm for the Midlantic states JAN 9-10... and once that feature passes through the East coast we end up with a full-blown +PNA pattern with a new strong PV over Hudson's bay and winter back under way at full power.

Of course this is just one possible scenario. I think until we get an idea of what and how the vortex over the Bering Sea gives way ir to shifts or fills or dies... we will have a lot of MR and LR forecast uncertainty. The MR and LR models really need to show some consistency in handling this feature and until they do any solution offerred for the secnd week of Jan is just speculation. For examole it is s possible we may see the weather models --especially the GFS --show more energy crashing into the Southwest which means more Ridging over the Southeast states and some model runs over the next several days may not look all that promising for those looking for colder temperatures. That's why I said in the last update that the crucial period i going to be January 3 --7 and I see no reason to change that.