The Ball pops Lose!!! FUMB!!!LE--- the op GFS has Fumbled the ball
It's not part of my makeup to kick a weather model when it's down but in this particular case I have to do it again because of some significant things which need to be pointed out.
First... A couple days ago I mAde a post/ blog entry about the threat of a Seattle/ Portland snowstorm for January 9 -10. I made that post for two reasons one of which is not particularly honest. I made that post because I thought that there might be a chance that Seattle and Portland could see a significant snow event.... IF that wave developing on the arctic front over the eastern Pacific and Western North America dropped down far enough so those cities would be on the northern side of the surface and 850 low.
However the other reason is that I strongly suspected that the operational GFS was over developing the northern and southern streams into this huge monster trough along the West Coast. And as I've been arguing over the last couple of days not only is this West Coast trough over done by the operational GFS but it has major implications with reagrd to how fast the cold moves across the country and how strong the Ridge is going to be over southeastern states.
In other words IF the op GFS gets the January 9 --10 Northwest storm correct than the odds are very good that it is solution for the Southeast Ridge being stronger than any of the model and holding on longer than any other model data showing.... is also likely to be correct . Ya follow?
On the other hand IF the operational GFS screws up the system on January 9 and 10th .... the Low does NOT come in all along the California Oregon border but instead tracks to the north of Seattle... say over Vancouver and lower British Columbia... it means that the solution as shown by the Canadian and European ensembles means as well as the op ECMWF are probably going to be correct with regard to the handling of the Ridge over the southeastern US.
The 6z op GFS shows the same
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_102l.gif
the ONLY possible conclusion that any meteorologist can draw here is that the operational GFS is suffering from its severe cold bias problem and that every other solution which is based upon the position and depth of the trough over the West Coast and the downstream monster Ridge is bogus and suspect.
If that doesn't convince you lets talk about this upcoming cold shot Jan 8-10 over ther Midwest and Northeast ....which many forecasters are missing or downplaying. Indeed I was viewing the site capitalweather.com and reading the forecast thereby Mr. Larson for the extended range around the DC metro-area. Not only did he have not the slightest god dam clue about the upcoming cold shot but it's pretty clear his entire forecast was totally based upon the operational GFS. All the autumn operational medium-range models on January for sure pretty significant cold last coming through.
Here is the January 3 OP GFS at 12z valid for Jan 9... as you can see the trough over the Northeast is very shallow and does not have a perfectly impressive amount of cold air with it at the 850 level. There is a small area of -10c over the Great Lakes and far western portions of Pennsylvania New York State with most areas of the Northeast according to the model seeing 850 Temps of -5c to -10c.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/avn/graphics/2007010312avnf144.gif
24 hours later the January 3 one of the 12z OP GFS shows very rapid warning over the Midwest and Northeast.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/avn/graphics/2007010312avnf168.gif
Now let's take a look at the data as from the 0z Jan 5 data -- op GFS -- here are a sample of the 850 temperatures for several selected cities over the Ohio valley and the Northeast for Jan 8 Jan 9 and Jan10
BOS.....+7C..... -11C.....-12C
ALB..... +3....... -11C..... -15C
PIT...... -8C......-10C...... -15C
NYC.....+4C..... -10C..... -12C
PHl.......+1c...... -9c....... -12c
CMH..... -9C......-9C...... -15C
DCA..... 0........ -7C...... -13C
RIC...... 0........-5C........-13C
Again the point here is that the operational GFS from from just a few days ago
clearly mishandled the upcoming strong but brief trough over the eastern half of US for January 8-10. Just like it has clearly screwed up te Pacific NW Low for Jan 9-10.
I am hoping that these two examples which are real hard factual examples of the cold bias of the operational GFS is being picked up by some folks out there but I have a feeling that's not going to be a case. Certainly reading the midday discussion yesterday from HPC they were clearly ass kissing the operational GFS like Sam Champion at a gay men's health club in New York City.
First... A couple days ago I mAde a post/ blog entry about the threat of a Seattle/ Portland snowstorm for January 9 -10. I made that post for two reasons one of which is not particularly honest. I made that post because I thought that there might be a chance that Seattle and Portland could see a significant snow event.... IF that wave developing on the arctic front over the eastern Pacific and Western North America dropped down far enough so those cities would be on the northern side of the surface and 850 low.
However the other reason is that I strongly suspected that the operational GFS was over developing the northern and southern streams into this huge monster trough along the West Coast. And as I've been arguing over the last couple of days not only is this West Coast trough over done by the operational GFS but it has major implications with reagrd to how fast the cold moves across the country and how strong the Ridge is going to be over southeastern states.
In other words IF the op GFS gets the January 9 --10 Northwest storm correct than the odds are very good that it is solution for the Southeast Ridge being stronger than any of the model and holding on longer than any other model data showing.... is also likely to be correct . Ya follow?
On the other hand IF the operational GFS screws up the system on January 9 and 10th .... the Low does NOT come in all along the California Oregon border but instead tracks to the north of Seattle... say over Vancouver and lower British Columbia... it means that the solution as shown by the Canadian and European ensembles means as well as the op ECMWF are probably going to be correct with regard to the handling of the Ridge over the southeastern US.
Well in case you missed it here are the links from the 0z and 6z op GFS for Jan 9-10.
0z op GFS at 102 hrs VALID JAN 9 at 6z .... note how the low pressure area is at least 300 miles north of Seattle and even passes while north of Vancouver!!! I mean Jesus H. Christ folks .... what a horrific model bust
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_102l.gif
The 6z op GFS shows the same
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_102l.gif
the ONLY possible conclusion that any meteorologist can draw here is that the operational GFS is suffering from its severe cold bias problem and that every other solution which is based upon the position and depth of the trough over the West Coast and the downstream monster Ridge is bogus and suspect.
If that doesn't convince you lets talk about this upcoming cold shot Jan 8-10 over ther Midwest and Northeast ....which many forecasters are missing or downplaying. Indeed I was viewing the site capitalweather.com and reading the forecast thereby Mr. Larson for the extended range around the DC metro-area. Not only did he have not the slightest god dam clue about the upcoming cold shot but it's pretty clear his entire forecast was totally based upon the operational GFS. All the autumn operational medium-range models on January for sure pretty significant cold last coming through.
Here is the January 3 OP GFS at 12z valid for Jan 9... as you can see the trough over the Northeast is very shallow and does not have a perfectly impressive amount of cold air with it at the 850 level. There is a small area of -10c over the Great Lakes and far western portions of Pennsylvania New York State with most areas of the Northeast according to the model seeing 850 Temps of -5c to -10c.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/avn/graphics/2007010312avnf144.gif
24 hours later the January 3 one of the 12z OP GFS shows very rapid warning over the Midwest and Northeast.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/avn/graphics/2007010312avnf168.gif
Now let's take a look at the data as from the 0z Jan 5 data -- op GFS -- here are a sample of the 850 temperatures for several selected cities over the Ohio valley and the Northeast for Jan 8 Jan 9 and Jan10
BOS.....+7C..... -11C.....-12C
ALB..... +3....... -11C..... -15C
PIT...... -8C......-10C...... -15C
NYC.....+4C..... -10C..... -12C
PHl.......+1c...... -9c....... -12c
CMH..... -9C......-9C...... -15C
DCA..... 0........ -7C...... -13C
RIC...... 0........-5C........-13C
Again the point here is that the operational GFS from from just a few days ago
clearly mishandled the upcoming strong but brief trough over the eastern half of US for January 8-10. Just like it has clearly screwed up te Pacific NW Low for Jan 9-10.
I am hoping that these two examples which are real hard factual examples of the cold bias of the operational GFS is being picked up by some folks out there but I have a feeling that's not going to be a case. Certainly reading the midday discussion yesterday from HPC they were clearly ass kissing the operational GFS like Sam Champion at a gay men's health club in New York City.
posted by DT @ 1/05/2007 09:54:00 AM
7 Comments:
At 12:25 PM,
Anonymous said…
Gotta love the Sam Champion line....
It is hard to believe in todays world......that the physics in the GFS model are not acknowledged as being at best bad (must be a govt thing)and worse.....every joe blow tv forecaster worships it. I mean why cant they use their brain and object some meteorology in their forecast.....After all....they were taught something in school I hope.
Thanks for an informative and instructional blog.
At 2:10 PM,
Anonymous said…
well, maybe if they chose their on camera mets for their understanding of synoptic meteorology rather than those other attributes Dave so well attributes to Mr. Champion, the networks might have a better record in forecasting accuracy!!
At 4:06 PM,
Anonymous said…
Great Post DT but would you mind explaining WHAT THE HELL THIS ALL MEANS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED Jan-March WINTER SEASON FOR EASTERN CONUS?
Please remit!
Thanks in advance
SAH
At 8:39 PM,
Anonymous said…
looks like there has to be more dissipation of ocean heat and a reconfiguration of sst profiles before a cold pattern locks for east...February is looking more likely. 2020 or bust!
At 9:23 AM,
Anonymous said…
Big Blue Wave said:
said...
DT - the personal attacks you make in your blog are a disgrace.
6:01 PM
IF YOU CAN'T TAKE THE HEAT GET AWAY FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH!
At 10:38 AM,
DT said…
BIG BLUE WAVE
posting on my blog shows that you are a 21st moron
In no way is this -- see below --anything clsoe to a PERSONAL attack
Mr. Larson for the extended range around the DC metro-area. Not only did he have not the slightest god dam clue about the upcoming cold shot but it's pretty clear his entire forecast was totally based upon the operational GFS
I said he is going to be seriously wrong and his forecast was heavily if not toally based on the op GFS.
those are professional coments... You may not like the tone but to assert my remarks are
"personal attack" shows that you Big Blue are one stupid bastard
At 10:53 AM,
Anonymous said…
DT -
I just want to say thanks for the continuing education. I'm no met, and only post at Eastern when I have a question - since you're no longer there but here with this blog, I find I have fewer and fewer questions and more and more understanding. Thanks!
I know it's not your neck of the woods, but once in a while (other than hurricane season) could you touch a bit on how things are going to pan out in the deep south?
Again, DT, Thanks!
pcbjr
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