There is No sex in the Champaign Room NONE

After looking over all of the data from 0z 6z and 12z here on Saturday morning.... I see no reason to change the forecast and when I had a couple days ago. This is a Major event -- and I will go into that in a minute why-- with Heavy rains over I-95 cities rain to snow over central PA and central NY state... best snows over eastern OH western PA western NY northern New England.

The overall synoptic setup is simply hostile for the idea of seeing any sort of significant snow or even measurable snow in the I-95 big cities from this evening Monday evening. When I made this initial forecast a few days ago it brought a pretty strong reaction from a couple posters - one guy who posted here under the name WXROCK was pretty strident in his reaction as was a poster over at eastern (PETEPSU) in that I was somehow jumping the gun... that something COULD change and it the overall pattern was "unstable" .. with the implication clearly being that there might be snow in the I-95 cities.

I am not exactly sure how anyone could call this El Nino induced warm active southern stream pattern unstable. Anyone who looks at this urrent pattern thinks it is "unstable" either does not know how to forecast OR needs go back and take a look the dictionary and see what the word means. The one thing we do know about the current pattern is that it is VERY stable.

After seeing the 12z NAM/ WRF I am reminded of a comedy by comedian Chris Rock... for the GED class of 1995... no matter what the hooker tells you there is no sex in the Champaign room. Oh there's Champaign in this Champaign room But you ain't interested in that. You are interested in Sex.... and there is No sex in the Champaign room. NONE.

In looking at the 12z NAM I see what the Model is TRYING to do and how so many weather hobbyists and weenies out there are desparate that the 12z NAM is going to be correct that that IF it shifts another 75-100 miles there will be snow in the I-95 cities .... or to follow the analogy ... sex in the Champaign room. Yes as I said back on Thursday it does NOT make a difference what the 12z NAM / WRF or any other models are depicting... there is no snow in the I-95 cities.

Oh there's going to be snow with the system in the mountains western PA Central Western NY State and North New England but if you in the big cities in northeast you're not interested in snow in those areas. You want the snow in the I-95 Corner. And this pattern it doesn't make a difference what the 12z NAM / WRF is trying to shift the Low track to the east ... There is going to be NO SIGNIFICANT snow in the I-95 cities

I'll start off by taking a look at the 0z ECMWF. As you can see here at the first link at 48 and 72 hours the model clearly shows the phasing is beginning with the northern shore wave of dropping in across the Plains or WEST of the Mississippi River. This is a classic and critical piece of information and he take a look at all 32 of the official KU snowstorms... having the phase occurring WEST of the Mississippi River is the kiss of death. Taking a look upstream we see a closed 500 low over southeastern LABRADOR but it's not really a classic 50-50 low so there is no reason for the major trough coming through the Mississippi Valley to dig any further south and east As a result system develops a negative tilt over the Tennessee Valley which again is too far to the West. Time and time again if you take a look at the 32 KU snows storm events having the mean 500 trough developing a negative tilt either OVER or west of the Appalalchians is the kiss of death. Note the Low DOES jump to the SE New England coast at 96 hrs

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f72.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f96.gif

we can also see this on the 0z UMET at 48 and 72 hrs... for major events strong model agreement between the ukmet and euro is hard to go against. Also note the BOMB like nature of this Big low
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/f48.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/f72.gif

0z CMC shows the phase WEST of the Mississippi river the trough DOES go negative and the Low is over the Appalachians
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/gemglb_amer_00_panel.gif

12z MODELS
Here is the CMC at 48 hrs ... Again the Phase is just too far west. Clearly WEST of the Mississippi river. Looking over SE Canada we can see how similar the 12z short range CMC is to the 0z euro with repsect to the 500 Low over Labrador. The data still shows a weak closed 500 low NOT over or near NF but over se Labrador which does NOT help
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif

72 hrs we have a Monster M.E.C.L. -- major East Coast low pressure area
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif

0Z NAM/ WRF
as you can see the model here at 60 hours from the 0z run SAT does not show the northern branch dropping in and phasing with the southern system and that is becasue the model also still has closed 500 low. This allows for the phasing to occur further east and hence the whole system the dull for the east. Note that at 84 hrs the 0z NAM WRF shows the phasing OVER the Mississippi river valley
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_060.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_084.shtml

Again keep in mind that none of the other models on at 60 hours still have the southern system as a closed 500 low. This should be an alarm bell or warning flag that the operational NAM/ WRF solution is probably bogus

That being so... we see the same problem here on the 12z SAT nam / wrf run and is as plain as the nose on your face. Pay attention to the closed 500 low in the southern stream over the DELTA .. as you can see it is closed off.

48 HRS .... but comparew this to the 48 hrs 12z GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam
of_500_048l.gif
NO hint of a closed 500 low over the Delta. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif
The result? once again the PHASE takes place OVER or east of the Mississippi river on the 12z NAM WRF which results in the whole system developing further east and is much more promising with respect to winter weather for the East Coast and especially for New England.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_060l.gif
The 12z GFS says No way. Note that b/c the model does NOT show a closed 500 Low at 48 hrs over the Delta the Phase is further west.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_060l.gif
12z Euro says the NAM / WRF idea is crap and the Low tracks over or Near PIT which is Very consistent with the last several runs
48 hrs http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f48.gif
72 hrs http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f72.gif

Interestingly no matter which particular short range model that we're using... they all showed that the actual trough axis develops a severe negative tilt which again I strongly agree with.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

One the things that good forecasters look for with regard to major East Coast systems is the "negative" tilt of the trough azis which often leads to major surface development. But the other key feature that many forecasters DO NOT see is what's going on over central and eastern Canada. From November through the end of March or early April most of the time we do see a large 500 low which is commonly for to as the PV --or Polar Vortex which is typical situated over central or eastern Canada. But as you can see from these Upper air maps .. in this particular pattern really don't have a PV. There is a deep PV Lows over the Bering Sea as well as over Eurasia and over Greenland which is part of the + NAO phase. But there is no deep or even weak 500 low anywhere over central or eastern Canada.

What this means then is that the atmosphere right now is essentially out of balance--- the Polar Jet is zonal with the long stretches of the zonal flow from the central or eastern Pacific... all the way across North America....and ending over the central Atlantic where the +NAO is. This sort of pattern during the cold season months CAN be dangerous sign provided you to get a significant trough to develop a negative tilt some where over the eastern half of the US. Without a deep closed 500 Llow -- a PV-- over central or eastern Canada the pattern or trough amplification over the eastern US often leads to the Low at 500 7500 700 and the surface to undergo explosive deepening then moving into the southeastern or eastern Canada and becoming the new PV
.
Sometimes this can lead to a massive change in the overall attern but as of right now none of the medium-range models are showing that happening.