SATURDAY NIGHT SPECIAL -- bang bang or woof woof ?

This is a special Saturday early evening report and I'm going to be talking mainly about the potential for a SECS / MECS event that has a lot of people all of buzz for Jan 25- 26.

Just remind y'all a S.E.C.S. event = Significant East Coast Snowstorm is something like a typical 4 to 12 " snowstorm...
a MECS = major East Coast Snowstorm such as widespread 8 to 16 inch snowstorm and a HECS which is a Historic East Coast snowstorm is something like a widespread Snowstorm that has 10 to 20 inches of snow with areas > 20 inches in the I-95 Metropolitan corridor.

I know that JB's been banging the drum here for several days as have I and several other well-known forecasters with regard to January 25... certainly the potential is there for a SECS or MECS event but I for one am NOT yet convinced that this event as shown by the last several runs of the operational GFS and the GFS ensembles is going to take place as those particular models are showing.

In other words in dealing with the time frame we are-- the event is still five to six days away-- we could end up with a large intense LOW off the East Coast but not close enough to produce any sort of significant or heavy snow except for perhaps far eastern New England... and yet because we are still dealing with five to six days in time at that medium-range it would STILL count as a "HIT" or a "good" forecast by the medium-range models.

Of course if you are all excited -- like I am -- about this possible event and you think that the GFS is going to verify correctly and you a may be salivating at the propsect of 12 inches of snow at your house.... well thats great. BUT suppose the other MR are correct... and we get a Big Low off the East coast but say 200 or 250 miles further to the east... well you are going to hear alot of bitching and complaining no end from the general public as well as weather hobbyists and weenies.

You see this is the risk that one pays by banging the drum so convincingly and so loudly. Moreover I can tell you that this is a source of considerable frustration with a lot of meteorologists... and if you are a weather hobbyists or member of the general public I don't think you fully understand the frustration that many of us feel the private sector. Just because one forecast or well known private forecaster Company happened to be on the Cable news a lot doesn't mean that I have to take the blame if your forecast goes wrong.

IF these other medium-range models turn out to be correct and those banging the drum for the big snow in the NE (like the GFS and GFS ensembles are showing) turn out to be wrong those forecasters like me who will have urged caution will be ignored even though we turned out to be correct.

The only thing that the public as well as weather weenies are going to remember if this event does NOT happen is that JB and a few other forecasters have been letting the BIG dog bark. And suddenly every single meteorologist will be viewed as have made the same forecast. The distinction between those who are making the big snow forecast and those who were not will be lost.

Interestingly when I used to post on some of the weather forums on this very point .. that there is reason why sometimes there is a little animosity between the various private forecasting companies and individuals... a lot of the more ignorant and slopeaded folks out there have the viewed this argument as nothing but jealousy or sour grapes.

But it does not matter whether we are talking about weather forecasting or taxes or medicine or stock trading... when you end up getting blamed for somebody else's mistake while at the same time u work tirelessly to show that you didn't agree... well that can really piss you off.

In taking a look at the 12z SAT op-GFS... this 500 MB map has a lot of features to talk about. And one of the main points I want to make is that even when you have all the pieces or almost all the pieces you need to get a snowstorm (with regard to the Upper Levels of the atmosphere) ... things can STILL go wrong. That's why is so difficult to get the "big dog" off the leash.

This map shows several features...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_102l.gif
yes we do have a 50-50 low in position. It's not the greatest 50-50 low full-time but it's definitely there. We have a nicely situated PV ... a fairly strong Ridge on the West Coast/ Rockies... and we appear to have phasing occurring between the strong system dropping in on the northern branch and the remains of the system coming out of Southwest. In addition the phasing was occurring over the Mississippi Valley which is ideal and the trough alignment or axis is NEUTRAL....

So what seems to be the problem? And why aren't the other models picking up on the op GFS and GFS ensembles?

Well this is one reasons why I am not a big fan of using the operational GFS for forecasting East Coast snowstorms. In the early outlooks ... say Day 7 thru day day 10 the model often ends up crushing systems in the STJ/ southern stream which is what the Op GFS and many of the GFS ensembles were doing just a few days ago. Now that we are within the Day 7 time frame the cold bias of the model and the ensembles manifest itself in a different manner.

Now we see the same tendency in the current runs of the model and again this applies to the GFS ensembles just as much as it does the operational run... to over phase and / or over develop systems. So while we can use the GFS ensembles in some ways... all of them have the same problem that the operational run does. So when you look at the 12z Saturday GFS ensembles and you see eight of the 11 members strongly supporting the idea of a major Low off of the Delmarva or New Jersey or off the Southeast New England coast Jan 25... they all may be showing the same problem/ affect if the cold bias.

The midday as well as the 0z SAT op ecmwf does not show the northern branch dropping in phasing with the southern system.

WHY? The Europeans hang in the southern system back too far and as a result there is no phase and the primary Low develops only from the northern stream shortwave so what we get is the ocean Low off Cape Cod or the Gulf of Maine.

This is what the 0z and 12z Ukmet is showing as well as the last few runs of the operational CMC.

As a general rule I like using the European model over the operational GFS because of these various bias problems that the model has. However over the last two years the advantage that the European models has shown historically has now disappear in the 24 to 168 hr time frame. And the best-known case of this has to do with the HECS event from ast year for the Northeast and specifically New York City. If you recall the European model DID show the Low nut had the Low further south.... while the GFS was correct once we got within 72 hours showing the Low further now along with the stalled comma head snow band. That being said I must also point out that the operational European at least did have the Low. We did not see this sort of huge model disparity that we seeing Now.

There is no reason one way or the other to be particularly optimistic or pessimistic at this point. This evening is another run and tomorrow is another day.